Three key takeaways from our Geopolitics and Business briefing
With conflict in the Middle East dominating headlines and boardroom conversations, we brought together two leading voices — Hayley Channer, Director of Economic Security at the United States Studies Centre (USSC), and Jon Berry, Geopolitics Lead at KPMG Australia's Geopolitics Hub — for an urgent briefing on what the Iran conflict means for Australian business. The session took place on Thursday, 2 April 2026.
Here are the three key takeaways:
1. Disruption as usual
The Iran conflict didn’t emerge from nowhere. It emerged against a backdrop of instability building since the global financial crisis. As Hayley put it: “Bad and worse is the new normal.” The boom period of globalisation is over, replaced by industrial policy, trade controls, and heated strategic competition for the foreseeable future. Reshoring and diversification won’t ease tensions, they’ll create new wealth inequalities that fuel further trade barriers.
For business leaders, the message is clear: geopolitical risk should be treated with the same seriousness as AI — embedded in your core strategy, not reserved for dinner party chat. That means pricing in more risk and building redundancy. The USSC’s economic security outlook for 2026 reinforces this, calling on businesses to move from risk awareness to operational readiness.
2. Inflation everywhere all at once
Jon walked through the cascade of commodity disruptions flowing from a single pinch point: the Strait of Hormuz. Energy, fertiliser, petrochemicals, and helium for semiconductors are all under pressure simultaneously. When energy costs rise, everything transported gets more expensive. Couple that with food input prices from fertiliser disruptions and polymer costs from petrochemicals, and inflationary pressure is coming from multiple directions at once.
Critically, this is landing on a global economy that hasn’t yet fully recovered from post-COVID inflation. Boards need to be scenario-modelling with 5%+ CPI and thinking through impacts on supply chains, customer behaviour, and the markets they sell into. KPMG’s economic and geopolitical analysis explores these dynamics in detail.
3. Predict nothing, plan for anything
Both Hayley and Jon emphasised that while no one can predict the future, businesses can prepare for multiple scenarios. Jon outlined a four-step approach: identify material risks, monitor for early warning signals, model potential impacts, and write action plans.
This approach doesn’t just apply to big corporates. Even Hayley’s husband’s small café chain has had to take bigger bets — buying coffee futures nine months ahead instead of three. For businesses of all sizes, the USSC’s work on economic wargaming offers a useful framework.
Want to go deeper? The Geopolitics and Business sprint, delivered with the USSC and KPMG Australia, equips you with tools and frameworks to navigate global disruption.
